AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST (COLD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 came in broadly in line with internal expectations: total revenue rose 2% sequentially to $663.7M (down 1.6% YoY), AFFO per share was $0.35, and Core EBITDA margin compressed to 22.3% on higher SG&A tied to Project Orion .
• On S&P Global consensus, Americold modestly beat on revenue ($663.6M actual vs $658.5M est.) and on “Primary EPS” ($0.05 actual vs $0.04 est.); note the company’s reported GAAP diluted EPS was a $(0.04) loss per share, explaining a methodology gap between GAAP EPS and Street “Primary EPS” constructs (see Estimates Context) *.
• Management reiterated full‑year 2025 guidance, lowered interest expense guidance, and maintained AFFO/share at $1.39–$1.45; the quarterly dividend of $0.23 was paid in October (+5% YoY) .
• Key near‑term overhangs: lower consumer demand and excess industry capacity; management now anticipates 2026 pricing headwinds (100–200 bps) and a 200–300 bps decline in economic occupancy, partially offset by retail/QSR growth and partner‑led projects ramping (CPKC/DP World) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Delivered AFFO/share of $0.35 and sequential revenue growth of ~2%; CEO: “deliver third‑quarter AFFO of $0.35 per share, in‑line with expectations, despite the ongoing industry headwinds” .
  • Commercial resilience: fixed‑commit rent & storage held at ~60% of segment revenue, helping price/mix; services and storage revenue per unit increased YoY despite competition .
  • Strategic execution: Allentown expansion and Kansas City (CPKC) and Jebel Ali (DP World) builds launched under budget or on time; pipeline ~$1B focused on retail/QSR and partner nodes .

• What Went Wrong

  • YoY softness and margin pressure: total revenue −1.6% YoY; Core EBITDA −5.7% YoY; Core EBITDA margin fell to 22.3% (from 23.3%) on lower volumes and higher SG&A related to Project Orion .
  • Services margin down: warehouse services margin declined 230 bps YoY to 10.6% on lower throughput volumes; same‑store services margin fell to 12.3% (−130 bps) .
  • Macro and supply headwinds likely to persist: management flagged continued pricing and occupancy pressure into 2026 given elevated capacity and cautious customers, implying estimate risk into next year .

Financial Results

Consensus vs. Actual (S&P Global)

Segment performance (Revenue and Contribution NOI)

Key KPIs (Global Warehouse)

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Deliver third‑quarter AFFO of $0.35 per share, in‑line with expectations, despite the ongoing industry headwinds.” — CEO Rob Chambers (press release) .
• “We anticipate that…pricing gains will moderate in the fourth quarter and could be a headwind of about 100–200 basis points next year…total economic occupancy could decrease by approximately 200–300 basis points next year.” — CFO Jay Wells .
• “We are also exploring ways to…strategically drive occupancy throughout our network…we are well‑positioned to reap the rewards of the investments we have made in labor, operational excellence, technology, and commercial leadership.” — CEO .
• “We are trading at a historically high cap rate of around 10%…EV/EBITDA multiple well below peers.” — CEO (valuation framing) .
• “The increase in Selling, general, and administrative is primarily related to the go live of Project Orion.” — 8‑K .

Q&A Highlights

• Throughput/seasonality: Sequential lift came from harvest; slight Q4 occupancy lift (~100 bps) expected due to harvest, but holiday seasonality was removed from forecasts .
• Guidance mechanics: Lower interest expense guidance was offset by lower other income classification; net impact to AFFO neutral .
• Pricing vs commitments: Team balancing term, price, and volume; customers value fixed space, but some renewals tighten commitments in FD nodes given excess capacity .
• 2026 outlook: Anticipates 100–200 bps pricing headwind and 200–300 bps economic occupancy decline; renewals spread through the year, not calendar‑year resets .
• Portfolio actions: Exiting lower‑occupancy leased sites and relocating to owned facilities to reduce costs and improve margins .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus (Q3 2025): Revenue $658.5M vs actual $663.6M (+$5.1M); “Primary EPS” $0.04 vs actual $0.05 (+$0.01); 6 estimates for both revenue and EPS*. At the same time, Americold’s reported GAAP diluted EPS was a loss of $(0.04) per share, reflecting GAAP treatment of D&A and other items; this GAAP vs “Primary EPS” gap is typical for REITs where non‑cash/one‑time items and non‑GAAP adjustments differ from broker models *.
• 2025 guidance reaffirmed, implying FY AFFO/share $1.39–$1.45 (midpoint unchanged); lower 2025 interest expense reduces finance drag but is offset by competitive pressures in pricing/occupancy baked into management’s 2026 view .
  Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q3 was operationally steady: sequential revenue growth and AFFO in line, but weaker YoY and lower services margins reflect ongoing demand and competitive pressure .
• Street prints were modest beats on S&P revenue and “Primary EPS”; we expect 2026 Street models to reflect management’s outlook for pricing and occupancy pressure (100–200 bps and 200–300 bps, respectively) *.
• Reaffirmed 2025 guidance with lower interest expense is supportive for near‑term AFFO; watch mix of SG&A (Orion amortization, SBC) and cost controls to sustain margins .
• Strategic levers remain intact: fixed‑commit coverage (~60%), retail/QSR mix growth, and under‑budget/on‑time projects with CPKC/DP World should support medium‑term NOI growth as demand normalizes .
• Balance sheet: liquidity ~$799M, net debt/EBITDA ~6.7x; management targets deleveraging as new assets stabilize through 2026—track ramp at Allentown, Kansas City, Dubai, Dallas .
• Tactical monitorables: economic vs physical occupancy gap (capacity absorption pace), services margin trajectory, renewal pricing in FD node markets, and additional lease exits shifting volume to owned sites .
• Non‑fundamental positives: Ireland export certification expands international capabilities and validates quality systems across sites (AA BRC ratings) .

Notes:

• All document‑based values include citations. S&P Global consensus/actual figures marked with asterisk are from S&P Global.